Value for USD

Are you serious? We are in the middle of a corona crisis and the S & P 500 trades at only 10% down from its all time high? I think I might have been a little wrong with the timing of my first sellings in the S & P 500 regarding the recent bull run. However this recent bull run could very easily be a bull trap - we don't know! All we know is that the FED adds to the debt a lot. See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP44g_R_TkM We have a 31% increase of the S & P 500 after a 35% decline. For over 2 years I expected a CLO crisis because we were already in a debt crisis in 2018 from my point of view. Companies were highly leveraged already in 2018 and 2020 the situation is only worse. I always thought all it takes is a shock to the economy and the crisis will unfold similar to the CMO crisis back then in 2007 / 2008. However it seems to be the case that I am not the only person who recognized this problem. Read the following Harvard Review article and you will under...

I might think we have another 1929 and the bubble bursts. The last few days I therefore built up CFD's to speculate on the bear market as a trend following strategy. As a first target I see the S & P 500 at about 2000 but it could easily overshoot down to 1500 or even further as there might be even more panic on wall street. As it doesn't make sense any more to hold shares of KHC I liquidated all shares of KHC.

This free eyeball test can be purchased at the moment for 0 Pound Sterling. Your free eyeball test has the advantage that you can not only do it at home but you can also very easily do cheating with that test. If you analyse the text you will find out that the test contains words that are simply put next to each other. Here are the words so you can learn it by heart: THE WORLD IN 2020 TRUMP BREXIT AI TOKYO MARS CLIMATE XI = Xi Jinping, President of China RECESSION MOD = Subculture or modification of a software IE = Internet Explorer XP = Windows XP, an operation that has no support since April 2009 OS = Operation System DGS BOND = A financial instrument that should provide interest with a certain risk of financial loss BEETHOVEN (VISION)S BIO DIVERSITY RAT = In German a counsel of people who seem to be important, In English a small animal that covers in the sewerage NPT = Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons WARREN = Warren Buffet RAPHAEL...

Did you know that it is very hard to impress a god? Let's check together how God views the economic growth. God never measures wealth in paper money. For all gods the meat and meal of the gods always were gold and will always stay gold. Humanity can print as much paper money as they want but this will never ever impress a god. So let us check how economic growth can be measured with this perspective of a god. In 1929 before the great crises you could buy the S & P 500 index for almost exactly the same amount of gold as in 2020. Now this 90 years cycle, a cycle of a generation, is complete and it is possibly time for another black swan event regarding paper money that becomes worthless over time. From a god's perspective economic growth measured in gold is a hoax and it all comes down to the mastery of printing money. Do you dare to own gold? How dare you? It is the food of the gods, the meat of the gods! If the gods allow you to own gold you are temporarily allow...

The XRP plan and results The plan was to trade XRP between 0.50$ and 1.0$. However such plans tend to not work out as expected because XRP left this trading range below 0.50$ down to prices at 0.20$. Therefore there was an additional investment into XRP at these low prices that was at a much higher percentage of the overall fund than initially planned. In recent days this bold strategy paid off. Currently XRP trades at 0.33$ and lots of trading positions could be closed with a 20% performance or more. These closed positions mean that we sit on a bigger cash position today. Other crypto currencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash also had a rally and some positions were closed there too raising the cash. Part of the cash invested into KHC The drop of the share prices of KHC was a welcomed opportunity to invest more into KHC. With the money from the closed XRP positions I bought into KHC at prices of 26.75$. I believe we could see a turnaround of this company in 2020-2021.

Currently we see Bitcoin on the rise. I assume that the other crypto currencies will follow Bitcoin as they did not have the same performance as Bitcoin yet. Therefore I bought small positions in Bitcoin Cash and Ethereum to participate in the current crypto currency trend. We will see...

On monday the 25th of February 2019 I decided to increase my stock holdings in KHC to 30% of the total value of this Etoro portfolio. Stock markets are tremendously overvalued with the exception of KHC which took a big hit on Friday after bad news. However the profitability of this company is solid and it is trading at very low P/E ratios. Also Warren Buffet decided not to sell stocks of KHC in this bad news situation. Call me crazy but I rather invest into undervalued stocks like KHC that took a big hit than into the overvalued rest of the stock market. See:  https://www.gurufocus.com/news/821915/kraftheinz-khc-buy-the-dip See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMZNQ2_Y2x8

In US wages were not rising since the last crises in 2007 while inflation was still there. So prices are higher now and the buying power is not there. The new trade wars increased prices of imported products from china. I assume that 90% of the american people have to spend all of their money to survive. In such a situation with no reserves in resources a recession is very likely and there might be not only blood on wallstreet but blood on the real streets of the US as well (meaning civil unrest). To me it seems to be that this huge bubble on wall street has become just a financial video game. Similar to the uprising of the stock prices because of enthusiasm the last decade there can be panic and the downfall as well. I warned for years that the shiller P/E ratio shows exactly this separation of wall street prices from reality. See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2akxVzZLBUw

The central banks know that there is a risk that paper money is becoming worthless because there was simply too much money printed as cheap credit the last decade. I think it makes sense to hold some real gold just in case we get really doomed. Whoever has the gold has the power to set the rules. Bitcoin has become a kind of an alternative to gold - I would call it a digital gold. Bitcoin could become tremendously valuable. There was never a recession so far with a digital currency like Bitcoin. We will see how a digital currency like bitcoin works in a hyper inflationary environment and a recession. See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5AC0Wjrvms&t=2001s

In recessions housing prices often fall so homes become more affordable. However we all know what happened in 2008 / 2009 when homes became too cheap. They do not cover the credit risk any more. In addition the recession in the US could mean a weaker USD especially if there is even more quantitative easing. This means basically that the ordinary people in the US have something similar to a cut in their salary. I think there is a serious risk that we have another housing crises similar to 2008 / 2009 in addition to eventually a credit loan obligation (CLO) crisis. It is not wise to buy a house in the US in the current situation. Housing prices may fall so I think you should currently wait for buying a new home.

On 5th of December 2018 we had an inverted yield curve. This is generally a sign for a stagnation of the economy. As long as the FED does not react we have signs for a new recession and no reason to believe in any programs of president Trump to fight a stock market crash in my opinion. See: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-05/inverted-yield-curve-will-fed-act-to-avoid-recession https://www.thebalance.com/inverted-yield-curve-3305856 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227014-inverted-yield-curve-complete-picture

You might want to watch the following video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmlXvOd1kQY The whole world knows now that this American stock market crash will become a mess. What will the Plunge Protection Team do? What will the FED do? Even more artificial intervention on the stock market as it happend to add a floor back in 2008/2009? Another monster that will be even worse than the monster created the last decate? I agree with the video author that this is a great opportunity (very rare). I think that the plunge protection team will fail. However if the FED does an emergency rate cut of interest rates I might get out of 20x leveraging S & P and Russel 2000 short selling. The loan bubble is simply too big. (See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHieYyi-vxY ). I am telling this for over a year that my graham copy fund strategy includes to play on this CLO crisis (credit loan obligations) with short selling (see:  https://grahamcopyfund.com/ ). The FED is stuck ...

I can recognize the same pattern in the S & P 500 as in 1987. In addition we have a huge bubble when we look at the shiller P/E ratios. I have a price target of 1300$ in the S & P 500 and bet with 20x leverage against the S & P 500 index. I expect this decision to be my biggest bet with the highest impact on my performance so far. In addition I sold all my stocks in Philip Morris. I will only keep my small investment into KHC as this stock is really cheap and you can get it below book value currently (P/B: 0.79). See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM5o4CGMFqI&t=185s See:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b82XJvL2P6M&t=1217s Time will tell if I am right with this decision.

30 years ago the Phönix on the front cover of the Economist of 1988 showed that the Phönix will rise from the ashes of an old pyramid structure, the money structure that burns in fire. On the coin on the breast of the Phönix the year 2018 is drawn. Now we are at the end of 2018 and raising cash as described in my strategy for 2018 was the best you could do. The stock market lost more than its earnings in 2018 and I think we see the first signs of the coming ashes of the Phönix. Accordingly the Economist of 2019 cover was completely black because darkness might follow this 30 years prophecy for the Phönix. The new NWO money system with the RFID chip is in place and some people already have their implanted chips in their right hand. That means basically the prophecy to have this new world order money system in place by 2018 is fullfilled. However this new money system is not rolled out to the masses yet. The Economist cover for 2019 was changed recently. It shows what's coming ne...

The Shiller P/E Ratio is on record high levels. In addition the FED raises interest rates continuously. Therefore I expect the next financial crises within every minute. As a result of this expectation I decided to continuously raise cash and wait what happens in the second half of 2018. I do some trading of XRP (Ripple) between 0,50 USD and 1,00 USD and wait what happens to BTC. At the moment I am still invested in KHC (Kraft Heinz Company) and PM (Philip Morris International) but just with 1x leverage (low risk). However I think at the moment cash is king so I raised about 17,34% cash already for the second half of 2018. Cash is King: http://www.laendlekurs.com/laendlekurs/index.php/cash-is-king-2018/cash-is-king-2018

I got interested in Amazon's recent price developments and analysed Amazon from a value investor point of view. EPS - Growth over last 6 Years = 28,7% p.a. EPS 2017: 6,32 USD AAA Corporate Bonds: 3,87% p.a. INTRINSIC VALUE = 6,32 * (8,5 + 28,7*2) * 4,4 / 3,87 = 473,50 USD However as Amazon reinvests everything into expansion the EPS measure is not really a good measure to evaluate this company. The revenue growth is a better measure for this company. Revenue per Share 2013: 160,75 USD     Share Price: 398,79 USD    P/R: 2,48 Revenue per Share 2014: 192,61 USD     Share Price: 310,35 USD    P/R: 1,61 Revenue per Share 2015: 224,34 USD     Share Price: 675,89 USD    P/R: 3,01 Revenue per Share 2016: 280,97 USD     Share Price: 768,66 USD    P/R: 2,74 Revenue per Share 2017: 360,79 USD     Share Price: 1169,47 USD  P/R: 3,24 Average P/R = 2,62 Current Sh...

KHC and KO released their earnings. While Coca Cola exceeded EPS expectations by 1 cent Kraft Heinz missed expectations by 6 cents. Therefore Kraft Heinz share price is down 10%. However I will keep both CFDs for another 3 months to see if they can improve. I do not want to sell them at a loss currently. However in 3 months I will reassess the situation - especially if the FED funds rate will be increased by then. If the FED raises interest rates high enough I might sell those CFDs after their next earnings release because I expect a financial crisis within every hour then.

The FED raised the FED funds rate from 1,15 to 1,41 so already 30 basis points in January 2018. As you can see the results from the S & P 500 index at current shiller P/E rates over a 10 years period are to be expected with an equal chance negative as well as positive. The worst reawl 10 years return at current shiller P/E ratios was -6,10% while the best real 10 years return was 6,30%. In addition I believe in a coming economic crises in the second half of 2018. The banking elite is not talking about years until the next crisis comes but hours. They expect the next crisis to come along every hour now. Also the freemasons and the Rothchild family's prophecy in The Economist of 1988 tells you that there will be ashes of the old world order to rise their phoenix of the new world order. Soon we therefore will have to decide if we take the mark of the beast for buying and selling (chip implant in the hand) or if we take care of our souls (biblical scripture - revelation). ...

Citigroup and Bank of America reported earnings last month. I keep it short, the numbers are looking good enough to keep both stocks in the portfolio for at least the next 6 months. I expect bank stocks to increase in value in 2018 as the FED funds rate increases. Earnings per share were: BAC: 47 cents (44 cents were expected) C: 1,28 USD (1,19 USD were expected)

Today I had some time to do some research and I decided to dedicate my time towards bitcoin. However I found something in the internet that really scares me. On Google the search term "buy bitcoin with credit card money" is at historic peaks. There are all different kind of people who cannot even afford to speculate with bitcoin trying to benefit from the bitcoin speculation on credit money and loans. This is typically the last final stage of stupidity in a bubble. Now lets find out if we are in a bubble with bitcoin. Bitcoin is a similar store of value like gold. All you will ever get back for your bitcoins is what another person is willing to give you for your bitcoins. You are not getting any dividends and Bitcoin is not creating value like a company does. As bitcoin is much too volatile for a currency and is used primarily for speculation I would call bitcoin a special commodity. In 2000 I was too young to be invested in the stock markets and therefore did not partici...