Bitcoin And SegWit2x - The Civil War Within Bitcoin (BTC)
BREAKING NEWS
The bitcoin SegWit2x hard fork is suspended. There will not be any hard fork. Therefore the following article is out of date and not relevant any longer.
See: https://www.coindesk.com/2x-called-off-bitcoin-hard-fork-suspended-lack-consensus/
My personal action: I bought back into bitcoin on this news because the risks of SegWit2x are eliminated.
Here follows the original article:
Bitcoin (BTC) performed 913,3% so far in the last year. At a current price level of 7541 USD per coin some investors stay away because they fear a bubble ready to burst and others rush in because they see the potential profit.
(See: https://www.onvista.de/news/bitcoin-wahnsinn-ich-habe-soetwas-bisher-noch-nicht-gesehen-78056839)
(See: http://www.finanzen.net/devisen/bitcoin-dollar-kurs)
I personally sold my BTC speculation at 6400 USD per coin not because I fear a bubble but I fear a technological upcoming event that could shake the Bitcoin community and cause turmoil leading to much lower prices of Bitcoin. I talk about the upcoming SegWit2x fork that is planned to happen around 16th of November 2017. At that date Bitcoin will be split into two blockchains with 1MB and 2MB of block sizes. Both blockchains have different supporting groups. This battle for the right technology, the supporting groups and the technological background is described very well in the following article of the Forbes magazine.
See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/#5745a9d33d3c)
If you check the current prices at the exchange bitfinex for BT1 and BT2, the two resulting blockchains, the value of BTC at 7400 USD is split into 6400 USD for BT1 and 1000 USD for BT2. As a lot of miners (>80%) already stated that they will support the BT2 blockchain and 1000USD is enough profit for them with the current mining equipement prices could flip very quickly to the side of BT2. In another scenario BT2 could loose out and BT1 could stay the market leading technology for Bitcoin.
(See: https://www.bitfinex.com/stats)
However I currently cannot predict the outcome of this technological and philosophical civil war between different supporting groups of Bitcoin (like core developers, businesses, ...). An owner of BTC will be able to create BT1 and BT2 coins thus doubling the amount of coins but I think the total USD value of both coins will be much lower after the fork because investors might sell their coins within the financial turmoil.
(See: http://fortune.com/2017/11/03/bitcoin-segwit2x/)
In another scenario one of the two blockchains will be much larger than the other and have much more processing power (hashrate) by the miners. If that happens the larger blockchain will make the smaller blockchain more or less unusable and as a result only one of the two Bitcoins will survive. For most of the Bitcoin investors this would be the better result than the split into two coins and could drive prices of Bitcoin even higher instead of lower because of the good news that Bitcoin stays one coin. For the supporting groups on the looser side of the bitcoin chain that did not survive the fork this is bad news of cause because the bitcoin with that technology does not exist any longer.
(See: https://coin.dance/blocks)
The Outcome of this fork is therefore completely uncertain. In addition the developers did not implement proper replay protection for the fork like the Bitcoin Cash fork had.
Without replay protection and with two chains maintaining independent monetary values, the loss of funds for many users on the network will literally be unavoidable due to accidental replay spending, replay attacks and sudden and widespread incompatibility between various software and Services.
(See: https://www.coindesk.com/opinion-segwit2x-doomed-fail/)
Ethereum Could Benefit From The Bitcoin Fork
As there will be significant consequences of the SegWit2x bitcoin fork Ethereum could become the new market leader for crypto currencies. If investors leave Bitcoin and search for alternatives this second biggest crypto currency could become very interesting and prices for Ethereum could rise. On the other hand there is also the risk that the turmoil in Bitcoin shakes up the whole cryptocurrency market and drives prices of all crypto currencies lower including Ethereum. Ethereum is very volatile and therefore a speculation with lots of risks involved.
Notes About Risks Involved
The author of this article owned Bitcoin (BTC) for a month and sold them for 6400 USD at a profit of 50%. The current CFD - portfolio includes only 8,24% of Ethereum of the total capital invested in CFDs. Please do not consider this article as a recommendation to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum. Crypto Currencies are highly volatile and include several risks like e.g. missing liquidity in the markets.
Any comments to the current situation of Bitcoin and the upcoming SegWit2x fork are welcome.
The bitcoin SegWit2x hard fork is suspended. There will not be any hard fork. Therefore the following article is out of date and not relevant any longer.
See: https://www.coindesk.com/2x-called-off-bitcoin-hard-fork-suspended-lack-consensus/
My personal action: I bought back into bitcoin on this news because the risks of SegWit2x are eliminated.
Here follows the original article:
Bitcoin (BTC) performed 913,3% so far in the last year. At a current price level of 7541 USD per coin some investors stay away because they fear a bubble ready to burst and others rush in because they see the potential profit.
(See: https://www.onvista.de/news/bitcoin-wahnsinn-ich-habe-soetwas-bisher-noch-nicht-gesehen-78056839)
(See: http://www.finanzen.net/devisen/bitcoin-dollar-kurs)
I personally sold my BTC speculation at 6400 USD per coin not because I fear a bubble but I fear a technological upcoming event that could shake the Bitcoin community and cause turmoil leading to much lower prices of Bitcoin. I talk about the upcoming SegWit2x fork that is planned to happen around 16th of November 2017. At that date Bitcoin will be split into two blockchains with 1MB and 2MB of block sizes. Both blockchains have different supporting groups. This battle for the right technology, the supporting groups and the technological background is described very well in the following article of the Forbes magazine.
See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/10/23/will-this-battle-for-the-soul-of-bitcoin-destroy-it/#5745a9d33d3c)
If you check the current prices at the exchange bitfinex for BT1 and BT2, the two resulting blockchains, the value of BTC at 7400 USD is split into 6400 USD for BT1 and 1000 USD for BT2. As a lot of miners (>80%) already stated that they will support the BT2 blockchain and 1000USD is enough profit for them with the current mining equipement prices could flip very quickly to the side of BT2. In another scenario BT2 could loose out and BT1 could stay the market leading technology for Bitcoin.
(See: https://www.bitfinex.com/stats)
However I currently cannot predict the outcome of this technological and philosophical civil war between different supporting groups of Bitcoin (like core developers, businesses, ...). An owner of BTC will be able to create BT1 and BT2 coins thus doubling the amount of coins but I think the total USD value of both coins will be much lower after the fork because investors might sell their coins within the financial turmoil.
(See: http://fortune.com/2017/11/03/bitcoin-segwit2x/)
In another scenario one of the two blockchains will be much larger than the other and have much more processing power (hashrate) by the miners. If that happens the larger blockchain will make the smaller blockchain more or less unusable and as a result only one of the two Bitcoins will survive. For most of the Bitcoin investors this would be the better result than the split into two coins and could drive prices of Bitcoin even higher instead of lower because of the good news that Bitcoin stays one coin. For the supporting groups on the looser side of the bitcoin chain that did not survive the fork this is bad news of cause because the bitcoin with that technology does not exist any longer.
(See: https://coin.dance/blocks)
The Outcome of this fork is therefore completely uncertain. In addition the developers did not implement proper replay protection for the fork like the Bitcoin Cash fork had.
Without replay protection and with two chains maintaining independent monetary values, the loss of funds for many users on the network will literally be unavoidable due to accidental replay spending, replay attacks and sudden and widespread incompatibility between various software and Services.
(See: https://www.coindesk.com/opinion-segwit2x-doomed-fail/)
This fork is therefore scheduled chaos if both blockchains remain because of missing replay protection. The fork is also bad reputation for Bitcoin if the companies win and SegWit2x is the only remaining blockchain because it renders Bitcoin's reputation as a censorship-resistant store of value all but worthless. Finally the last scenario of the fork is that the existing core - protocol remains and SegWit2x is a failure. In this outcome we risk to loose a lot of support by companies who supported SegWit2x which is bad news for Bitcoin and will lead possibly to much lower prices of Bitcoin because of the bad news. The conclusion therefore is that there is much more risk involved in this fork than the double amount of blocksize adds value to the technology. SegWit2x would be a temporary solution to the problem of rising transaction fees anyway. Certainly SegWit2x does not solve that problem once and forever.
Ethereum Could Benefit From The Bitcoin Fork
As there will be significant consequences of the SegWit2x bitcoin fork Ethereum could become the new market leader for crypto currencies. If investors leave Bitcoin and search for alternatives this second biggest crypto currency could become very interesting and prices for Ethereum could rise. On the other hand there is also the risk that the turmoil in Bitcoin shakes up the whole cryptocurrency market and drives prices of all crypto currencies lower including Ethereum. Ethereum is very volatile and therefore a speculation with lots of risks involved.
Notes About Risks Involved
The author of this article owned Bitcoin (BTC) for a month and sold them for 6400 USD at a profit of 50%. The current CFD - portfolio includes only 8,24% of Ethereum of the total capital invested in CFDs. Please do not consider this article as a recommendation to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum. Crypto Currencies are highly volatile and include several risks like e.g. missing liquidity in the markets.
Any comments to the current situation of Bitcoin and the upcoming SegWit2x fork are welcome.
Kommentare
Kommentar veröffentlichen