Added even more selling of the S & P 500 - Corona Crisis not over, housing market doesn't look good as well and possibly CLO crisis ahead?
Are you serious? We are in the middle of a corona crisis and the S & P 500 trades at only 10% down from its all time high? I think I might have been a little wrong with the timing of my first sellings in the S & P 500 regarding the recent bull run. However this recent bull run could very easily be a bull trap - we don't know! All we know is that the FED adds to the debt a lot.
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP44g_R_TkM
We have a 31% increase of the S & P 500 after a 35% decline.
For over 2 years I expected a CLO crisis because we were already in a debt crisis in 2018 from my point of view. Companies were highly leveraged already in 2018 and 2020 the situation is only worse. I always thought all it takes is a shock to the economy and the crisis will unfold similar to the CMO crisis back then in 2007 / 2008.
However it seems to be the case that I am not the only person who recognized this problem. Read the following Harvard Review article and you will understand the problem.
https://hbr.org/2020/04/managing-the-liquidity-crisis
You might realize that things are not that easy as they look like. In 2018 I already wrote the following german motto of Ländlekurs.
https://www.laendlekurs.com/laendlekurs/index.php/cash-is-king-2018/cash-is-king-2018
In this motto I wrote already in 2018 that there is a risk that the problem of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in 2007 / 2008 could repeat with the Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO). However the housing market in the USA could be in trouble again as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q15hgniYXxM
Similar to the situation in 2007 / 2008 the housing market index dropped from 80 to 30 in April. I already thought in 2007 / 2008 that I need to sell all of my stock with such a housing market problem. Now I see the same problem and I think I should do the same or even try to profit from a stock market decline.
See: https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Housing-Economics/Indices/Housing-Market-Index
Therefore I am still pessimistic for the rest of the year 2020 regarding the S & P 500 index.
As a result I added to the selling positions of the S & P 500 today at these unbelievable high levels in a hope to be right this time and possibly even the first sellings from a longer perspective than just a few weeks.
Some effects of the corona virus are permanent as people are escaping from the big cities and relocate to small cities.
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfaVtjQU_jE
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP44g_R_TkM
We have a 31% increase of the S & P 500 after a 35% decline.
For over 2 years I expected a CLO crisis because we were already in a debt crisis in 2018 from my point of view. Companies were highly leveraged already in 2018 and 2020 the situation is only worse. I always thought all it takes is a shock to the economy and the crisis will unfold similar to the CMO crisis back then in 2007 / 2008.
However it seems to be the case that I am not the only person who recognized this problem. Read the following Harvard Review article and you will understand the problem.
https://hbr.org/2020/04/managing-the-liquidity-crisis
You might realize that things are not that easy as they look like. In 2018 I already wrote the following german motto of Ländlekurs.
https://www.laendlekurs.com/laendlekurs/index.php/cash-is-king-2018/cash-is-king-2018
In this motto I wrote already in 2018 that there is a risk that the problem of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in 2007 / 2008 could repeat with the Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO). However the housing market in the USA could be in trouble again as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q15hgniYXxM
Similar to the situation in 2007 / 2008 the housing market index dropped from 80 to 30 in April. I already thought in 2007 / 2008 that I need to sell all of my stock with such a housing market problem. Now I see the same problem and I think I should do the same or even try to profit from a stock market decline.
See: https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Housing-Economics/Indices/Housing-Market-Index
Therefore I am still pessimistic for the rest of the year 2020 regarding the S & P 500 index.
As a result I added to the selling positions of the S & P 500 today at these unbelievable high levels in a hope to be right this time and possibly even the first sellings from a longer perspective than just a few weeks.
Some effects of the corona virus are permanent as people are escaping from the big cities and relocate to small cities.
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfaVtjQU_jE
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